The GBP/USD pair quite unexpectedly broke out of the downward channel on August 27, which was nearly directed sideways. Nevertheless, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, the quotes surged to the upper descending line of the channel, and traders broke through this line the next day, and so the price rose to the resistance level of 1.3346. Thus, the pound sterling, which has fewer grounds for new growth, continued it. We also managed to build a new ascending channel last Friday, which clearly shows an upward trend. At this time, we expect a slight downward correction, after which the upward movement is likely to resume.
Both linear regression channels turned up on the 15-minute timeframe, therefore, in the shortest term, an upward trend is now observed. The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the British pound, which came out on Friday, was completely neutral. Despite the fact that the UK currency resumed growing against the dollar, professional traders did not open new Buy-contracts during the reporting week of August 19-25. On the contrary, 9.700 Buy-contracts and 9,100 Sell-contracts were reduced. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" category of traders even slightly decreased. However, this change is so insignificant that it makes no sense to draw conclusions on it. Thus, the general attitude of large traders remains the same. The last three trading days were not included in the new COT report, and it was on these days that the British currency sharply increased. Thus, in the new COT report, we can see a serious increase in net position among non-commercial traders, which, in turn, will confirm the intention of the big bulls to continue investing in the pound sterling, while getting rid of the dollar.
The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair on Friday was not expressed by macroeconomic reports. We have already mentioned in the euro/dollar article that all reports from overseas did not provide any support to the US dollar. There were no economic data from Britain at all. We only had Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, at which Powell spoke the day before. But, like his American counterpart, Bailey did not give the listeners any fundamentally new and important information. He only noted that the Bank of England's toolbox is by no means exhausted, despite the cut in the key rate to a record low of 0.1% and an increase in the quantitative easing program. As you can see, Bailey's words could not provide serious support to the British pound either. Thus, we are more inclined to the option that the buyers' patience snapped at the end of the previous week and they took the pair for new purchases, since the bears showed their weakness and unwillingness to dominate the market during the month.
Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for August 31:
1) Buyers have been active in recent days and are pushing the pair up again. At the moment, they need to overcome the 1.3346 level, but we believe that a downward correction should start on Monday, and only after its completion can the upward movement resume with the target of 1.3425. Downward correction can be 70-80 points. It is recommended to open new longs in the lower area of the ascending channel. Take Profit in this case will be about 150 points.
2) Bears released the pair from their hands again, as the quotes went above the downward trend channel, so sales will cease to be relevant. Thus, it is now recommended to consider long positions again after the price consolidates below the ascending channel and the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines with the target of the support area of 1.3003-1.3023. Take Profit in this case will be about 110 points.
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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